In the past year, investors have been rocked by a bear market, the crypto crash, Russia’s war on Ukraine and massive Fed rate hikes — and some forecasts see even more tumult in 2023.
Here are some of the boldest predictions for the new year.
Tesla stock will plunge further
Long-time Tesla bear Gordon Johnson, head of investment research at GLJ Research, expects more downside for Elon Musk’s EV company. In fact, he said that shares of Tesla could drop as low as $23, per Fortune.
That’s down from about $120 now and would follow a dive of more than 60% in 2022.
Tesla is facing demand issues, increasing competition, and an overblown valuation, Johnson said, adding that Musk is hurting the stock price by selling billions of dollars worth of his shares and creating drama with his Twitter antics.
“They’re just a car company that has built too much capacity that they can’t sell,” he told CNBC.
Gold skyrockets to $3,000 an ounce
In Saxo Bank’s view, the precious metal could be slated for a banner year even after the classic inflation hedge failed to find its footing in 2022.
Once markets realize inflation won’t be tapering off anytime soon, gold will surge to $3,000 per ounce, the bank wrote. Currently, it’s around $1,800.
The S&P 500 crashes again
After losing 20% in 2022, the index could keep falling. Strategists at Truist say the S&P 500 could fall as low as 3,400 next year as bleak near-term outlooks for corporate earnings keep stocks muted.
While a 7.5% gain is possible, stock valuations remain “far from compelling,” co-chief investment officer Keith Lerner previously told Insider.
Elsewhere, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and Deutsche Bank expect the S&P 500 to tank over 20% at some point next year.
US risks another Great Depression
With the Fed “ignoring deflationary signals,” Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood said in a series of November tweets that the economy could slow further to the point where it resembles the landscape before the Great Depression.
“The Fed raised rates in 1929 to squelch financial speculation and then, in 1930, Congress passed Smoot-Hawley, putting 50%+ tariffs on more than 20,000 goods and pushing the global economy into the Great Depression,” Wood warned. “If the Fed does not pivot, the set-up will be more like 1929.”
A country will ban meat production
Saxo Bank again makes the list of boldest predictions, as its analysts forecasted that net-zero targets will compel a nation in 2023 to commit to going meatless.
Next year, “at least one country looking to front-run others in marking out its lead in the race for most aggressive climate policy, moves to heavily tax meat on a rising scale beginning in 2025,” the bank said.
Home sales will sink to their lowest level in more than a decade
That’s according to Redfin, which said persistent inflation, recession fears, and housing unaffordability will make would-be buyers slow to sign mortgages, causing home sales will slide. The company expects roughly 16% fewer existing home sales next year compared to 2022, at about 4.3 million.
“Mortgage rates will take center stage in 2023, with high rates likely to make it the slowest housing-market year since 2011,” Redfin wrote in a year-ahead outlook.